Canada’s Trade Reality Check: Compete, Adapt, or Get Squeezed – David Winfield
Good morning and welcome back to another round of smart, blunt, high-stakes talk about trade, commerce, and economic development. Today’s conversation brought together three voices with deep mileage in the trade space: host John Juricic, joined by David Winfield and John Treleaven — both seasoned veterans of Canadian trade policy, diplomacy, and on-the-ground dealmaking. The central theme: Canada’s trade future is being rewritten in real time, and Canadian companies don’t get the luxury of sitting this one out.
When Turbulence Becomes the New Normal
The latest tremor in Canada-U.S. trade relations — another round of mid-air tariff drama as the U.S. president flew to Asia — set the tone. These are not isolated scuffles; they’re signs of a structural shift. For Canadian businesses, this means living with volatility, political mood swings, and the constant need to re-evaluate risk. The panel’s goal: help Canadian firms make sense of the noise and find real, practical ways to compete beyond the U.S. border.
Meet David Winfield: The Diplomat Who’s Seen It All
Today’s featured guest, David Winfield, is a career insider who has navigated every layer of Canada’s trade machinery.
- Former Ambassador to Mexico (1989–1995)
- Veteran Trade Commissioner in Asia and Latin America
- VP of Government Relations for Northern Telecom
- Advisor to the Malaysian Central Bank and global financial institutions
He’s one of the few who’s seen trade from the field, the negotiating table, and the corporate boardroom — which makes his insights especially grounded.
Trump, Trade, and the Art of the Chaos
When asked what’s really happening under the surface of U.S. trade policy, Winfield’s answer was sobering: chaos is the strategy. Trump’s public outbursts and shifting statements aren’t random; they’re part of his “Art of the Deal” playbook — sow confusion, create leverage, and force the other side to blink first.
The result? Endless volatility, higher transaction costs, and headaches for U.S. consumers and Canadian exporters alike. The take-away: Canadian firms can’t wait for “stability.” They need resilience built in.
Mexico’s Tightrope: Balancing Power and Pragmatism
Now living in Mexico, Winfield has a front-row view of how the Mexican government is managing its relationship with the U.S. He praised President Sheinbaum’s balancing act — maintaining national dignity while keeping trade channels open. With an 80% domestic approval rating, Mexico’s leadership is proving that smart diplomacy and economic pragmatism can coexist.
For Canada, this means a new opportunity: Mexico isn’t a secondary partner anymore — it’s a central player in the North American trade equation.
The Hard Truth: Diversification Takes a Decade
Shifting Canada’s trade reliance away from the U.S. isn’t quick. Winfield estimates it will take ten years to build meaningful diversification. Geography, language, and culture all make the U.S. the easy choice — but easy doesn’t equal safe.
As global supply chains shift, Canadian firms will need to get comfortable with risk, culture gaps, and slower relationship-building cycles abroad.
Europe or Asia? The Fork in the Trade Road
Both Winfield and Treleaven tackled the classic question: where should Canadian exporters go first?
- Europe offers cultural familiarity, shared business norms, and easier communication.
- Asia demands deeper trust and longer-term relationship building but holds enormous market potential.
Their advice: it’s not either/or. Go where your best customer is — the one with the lowest risk and highest trust potential.
Relationship Is the Strategy
A recurring theme: trade is not transactional — it’s relational. The relationship between a Canadian supplier and a foreign buyer isn’t a quick sale; it’s a mutual bet on each other’s future. In Asia especially, relationships and reputation precede the contract.
Winfield reminded listeners that the companies who succeed are those who “walk in the steps of their customers.”
Canada’s Hidden Advantage: People and Trust
While Europe may seem easier, Canada’s biggest untapped advantage lies in Asia — through its own people. Immigrant networks, family connections, and business ties stretching across Hong Kong, India, Malaysia, and China are powerful bridges. These are not just demographics; they’re trade infrastructure. Combine that with Canada’s global reputation for stability and fairness, and the opportunity is enormous.
Mexico 2026: A Test Case for Action
The upcoming Canadian trade mission to Mexico (February 15–20, 2026) is a prime example of what proactive diversification looks like. Covering Mexico City, Monterrey, and Guadalajara, it spans agriculture, advanced manufacturing, clean tech, and creative industries.
It’s not just symbolic. It’s a reminder that diversification only works when companies show up, learn the market, and build trust face-to-face.
Are Canadian Companies Ready?
John Treleaven posed the uncomfortable question: have Canadian firms gone soft?
He argued that once upon a time, we were masters of change management — agile, inventive, and fearless — but now we’ve grown complacent.
Winfield disagreed: Canada’s firms have been smart, not lazy. They’ve thrived in the U.S. because it made sense to. But now, the risk profile has shifted, and complacency is no longer affordable.
Traits of the New Canadian Exporter
Winfield summed up what it takes for Canadians to thrive in today’s trade reality:
- Passion – Be genuinely interested in what you sell.
- Curiosity – Care deeply about who you’re selling to.
- Clarity – Communicate that interest convincingly.
- Trustworthiness – Build and earn confidence across borders.
- Empathy – Understand why your customer needs you.
Or, as Winfield quipped:
“International trade is easy — as long as you don’t have to make money.”
The Last Word: Canada’s Brand Still Matters
For all the uncertainty, Canada’s strengths remain real:
- A global network of 145 trade commissioner offices.
- A brand trusted worldwide for reliability and fairness.
- A base of talent and innovation capable of competing anywhere.
The challenge isn’t potential — it’s will.
Canada has every tool it needs to diversify successfully; it just has to start using them again.
Final Thought: Attention Spans Are Shrinking
As Treleaven noted, “Most of what we say today has to land in 30 seconds.”
That’s the modern communication reality — and it applies to trade too. Every Canadian company needs to tell its story quickly, clearly, and with authenticity.
Because in this new world, you either adapt — or you get squeezed.